With the triple whammy of low entry points and the promise of high yields and short term rapid capital growth, it’s easy to see why many property investors are lured into buying property in Australian mining towns. But what are some of the hidden dangers?
The resources boom in recent years has attracted a wealth of workers to once sleepy rural towns, resulting in large increases in population sizes and ultimately the demand for housing. With the transient nature of workers causing significant demand for rental accommodation, these towns offered a great opportunity for confident investors to cash in, which many of them did successfully.
The resources boom has been one of the biggest single influences on Australian real estate prices in recent years, seeing property in mining towns skyrocket and investors scrambling to grab a piece of the action. While the potential to make huge capital gains in a short period of time is extremely enticing, the risks prove just as great.
Why it’s inherently risky
I would consider investing in a mining town to be a risky or speculative investment for two main reasons.
Firstly, the life of the town has been built on the success of the resources industry which is dependent on commodity prices that are notoriously fickle. These prices are reliant on demand from overseas markets and if these markets falter, prices collapse and this affects the industry.
Secondly, as is often the case in mining towns, a large proportion of the population in the town is not permanent. You need to keep in mind that much of the population is employed by the industry and is transient. Should employment prospects dry up, so will the size of the population and the consequent demand for property. There is also a risk in that, as prices for property and rentals escalate, mining companies will find it more economical to fly workers in and out rather than pay for their accommodation.
Some of the main dangers
1. Getting the timing wrong
The resources industry is cyclical. Success is largely determined by your ability to predict the best time to enter and exit the market. Take for example the Pilbara in the north of Western Australia. In 2003 the median house price was $195,000, but by 2011some towns had reached a median price of over $1 million. If you invest at the peak of the market, you might find it takes a decade or longer too see any growth.
2. The population decreases after the construction phase
You need to consider the difference between the construction and operational phases of a mine. While the facility is under construction there could be the need for an abundance of workers for the first few years to get it up and running, but when complete the actual employees required may be far less resulting in a sharp drop in housing demand.
Stage one of the Gladstone Pacific Nickel project is a prime example of this, with 1200 jobs needed during construction, but permanent operational employment is a third of that level.
3. The mine closes or is mined out
One of the biggest dangers to your investment is that the mine which supports the town closes. The effects of this are catastrophic with a dramatic decrease in population and thus demand for your property. We saw this in recent times with the closure of the Ravensthorpe mine, but it’s certainly not the first time.
Mt Morgan, south-west of Rockhampton, is a classic example of a town that has not yet recovered since its gold mine closed in 1981. During itshey day, it was rated as one of the nation’s most gold rich locations, had a population over 10,000, and was bustling with wealth and prosperity. Today its population is just over 2,400people, its median house price in 2008 was just $77,000, with an unemployment rate of 21.4%.
What you should look for if you do invest
Making a solid investment decision in a mining town is not straightforward. If you are looking to invest in these areas, it’s important to undertake extensive research, investigating the location thoroughly before purchasing. It’s best to concentrate on towns that have a diverse industry and employment base, perhaps one that is strong not only in mining but also tourism or other industries so your investment is somewhat protected should one industry suffer or disappear altogether.
Another way to benefit in a less risky manner, is to invest in the nearest capital city or regional centre to a predicted boom area. Wealth from the mining will flow back to the major city areas. Keeping in mind real estate as a long-term investment, this strategy will assist you to survive beyond just the boom as these areas possess other desirable and stable factors to keep your investment sound.
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